Author: Zac Martin, Investment Associate
Week Ending February 28th – Best Picture
Consumer Confidence declined seven points in February, primarily led by a decline in forward expectations. Additionally, consumers expectations for higher inflation increased while the bullishness about the stock market continued to decline. Consumers’ pessimism about the labor market and business conditions continued to worsen.
Q4 GDP 2nd preliminary reading was unchanged from the 1st reading. Q4 GDP is expected to grow 2.3% Q/Q or 2.5% Y/Y. Additionally, the Atlanta Fed is forecasting a contraction of -2.8% in Q1 GDP. However, the range of analyst forecasts remain in expansion territory. The divergence between estimates and the model is due to a surge in imports as companies begin preparing for possible tariffs.
Personal Consumption Expenditures grew for the month of January by 2.5%, which was inline with the current estimates. Core PCE decelerated from 2.9% to 2.6%, CME FedWatch increased the odds of a Fed rate cut in June following the report.
The week ahead:
- AZO, TGT, CRWD (3/4)
- BF.B, CPB & ISM PMIs (3/5)
- KR, AVGO, COST & Unit Labor Costs and Productivity (3/6)
- Unemployment & Nonfarm Payrolls (3/7)
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