Author: Zac Martin, Investment Associate
Week Ending August 1st – BLS-less
The Consumer Confidence Index increased for the July report. Views around the likelihood of a recession declined while families expected financial situation continues to improve since the trough in April.
Job Openings declined to 7,437K from 7,712K while the amount of quits and hires also continued to decline.
Q2 first preliminary reading of real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3%, primarily due to the decrease in imports. Consumer consumption was better than the previous quarter, increasing by 1.4%. While Government consumption remains at a level below the previous quarters in 2024.
FOMC meeting for July left the federal funds rate unchanged, as expected. Currently 84% cut probability for September’s meeting. Additionally, two committee members voted against keeping the rate unchanged as they favored lowering by 0.25%. This is the first dual dissent in 30 years.
Nonfarm payrolls for July increased by 73K, which is below the twelve-month average of 155K. Additionally, the report revised the previous two month’s reports downward, highlighting that no jobs were added for May and June. The unemployment rate ticked slightly higher to 4.2%.
The Week Ahead:
- ISM Services & Manufacturing PMIs (8/5)
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