Markets in a Minute - Business As Usual
By: Zac Martin
Author: Zac Martin, Senior Investment Analyst
Week Ending April 17th – Business As Usual
Over the last two weeks the market has fully recovered, and even achieved a new all-time high, from the slump that occurred since the beginning of the Iran Conflict. Over the two-week recovery the market posted seven positive sequential days and then another five positive sequential days. From a technical perspective this may indicate strong upward momentum, below is a summary of market price returns following a five-day win streak starting 1950.
However, several reports during this time highlighted a more mixed economic picture.
Q4 2025 GDP: Was revised further downward to an annualized rate of 0.5%, down from 0.7% and 1.4% before that. The continued drag on GDP growth for Q4 is the government shutdown that was enacted in October/November. Additionally, the consumer side reported annualized growth rate of 1.9%, lower than previous quarters.
Consumer Price Index for March: Headline inflation reported year-over-year growth of 3.3%, up from February’s 2.4% but below the estimated 3.4%. This increase is not surprisingly due to the recent increase in energy costs. Core CPI reported a year-over-year growth of 2.6%, also up from February and below analyst expectations.
Consumer Sentiment: The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers saw a near record low reading since the report’s inception. It is important to note that sentiment surveys can be contrarian indicators to market returns.
The Week Ahead:
- Retail sales (4/21)
- Earnings Season
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