Author: Zac Martin, Investment Associate
Week Ending March 28th – Cored & Weaved
The final reading for US GDP in Q4 2024 was in line with the previous estimates, GDP grew 2.4% at an annualized rate. Consumer spending offset any decreases from net exports and investment spending. The decline within investment spending was led by a decrease in inventories and equipment, which both tend to be volatile. Structures and intellectual property increased slightly. (See the Chart below).
Consumer Confidence declined slightly to 92.9 in March’s report, this was below the analyst expectations of 94.3. Consumer expectations around future business, income, and labor market conditions declined to 65.2 and remains at the lowest level in 12 years. The chart below is the plotted results from the consumer survey as it relates to forward expectations of business activity, future income and employment conditions.
Personal Consumption Expenditures increased slightly ahead of expectations, increasing 2.5% year-over-year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, expectations around a Fed rate cut for June’s meeting did not change.
The Week Ahead:
- ISM Manufacturing (4/1)
- JOLTS Report (4/1)
- Reciprocal Tariff News (4/2)
- ISM Services (4/3)
- Non-farm payrolls & Unemployment rate (4/4)
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