Author: Zac Martin, Investment Associate
Weeks Ending November 9th – Gales of November
Government Shutdown Update: On Sunday the Senate voted to move forward a bill that would re-open the government. The senate will vote on passing the bill this coming week, from there the House will need to approve the continuing resolution and then goes to President Trump to sign. The continuing resolution aims to fund the Government until January 31st, 2026, where the Senate will continue its discussion around the ACA. This shutdown is officially the longest in US history, currently at 41 days.
Unemployment Update: Due to the continued shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release the Non-farm Payrolls report and the Unemployment report. However, there have been several private reports published over the past week that measure the current labor market environment. The first report is the ADP employment survey, posted better than expected results, with an estimated 42k new payrolls. However, the firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that job cuts peaked to over a 20-year high for the month of October (there have been higher reports, but not for October - chart below). At the same time though, the Chicago Fed’s Labor Market Indicators reported relatively no change in the unemployment rate or layoff rate.
ISM Service & Manufacturing PMIs: Services accelerate by 2.4% due to strong new orders and business activity. Whereas manufacturing declined for the 8th straight month, however, new orders contracted at a slower rate. Manufacturing weakness came from an increase in prices and a decrease in overall production.
The Week Ahead:
- NFIB Small Business Index (11/11)
- Banks closed; Stock market open (11/11)
- Consumer Price Index (11/13)
- Retail Sales (11/14)
- Producer Price Index (11/14)
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