Markets in a Minute - Revived Markets
By: Zac Martin
Author: Zac Martin, Senior Investment Analyst
Week Ending April 3rd – Revived Markets
Volatile week as markets moved off hopes for an Iran Ceasefire. The VIX briefly moved above 30, which is a contrarian indicator. Since the early 90s, as the VIX moves above 30 the following time periods below tend to be positive. The only periods in which this did not occur are during structural bear markets, i.e. Tech Bubble, Great Financial Crisis, and 2022.
The Employment Situation Summary: Nonfarm Payrolls for March were significantly higher than analyst estimates, with the economy adding 178k jobs vs. 60k expected. This is also a considerable increase from February’s report with that report showing a decline of 92k. Revisions were also meaningful in both directions for the two prior months, February was revised down by 41k to 133k and January revised up by 34k to 160k. Additionally, PMIs tend to be a leading indicator to employment and as business sentiment gains traction, employment could continue to recover. The Federal Reserve has made several comments over the past year that weakening employment has become their concern, and a path to lower rates. If employment is strengthening, a sign that the economy is doing well, lower rates may be off the table. Conversely, the economy may even begin to face re-inflation risks, notwithstanding the recent increase in oil prices.
The Week Ahead:
- FOMC Minutes for March Meeting (4/8)
- Final Q4 2025 GDP Reading (4/9)
- Consumer Price Index (4/10)
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