Author: Zac Martin, Investment Associate
Week Ending January 23rd – Snowed In
US GDP Q3 Final: The final reading of US GDP for Q3 2025 was a strong report of 4.4%, which was revised higher from 4.3%. Personal consumption contributed more than half of the growth for the quarter, accelerating to 2.34% from 1.68%. Investment remained unchanged and positive net exports contributed another 1.62%. Government consumption contributed 0.38% after being negative for Q1 and Q2. Looking ahead, Q4 2025 Real GDP could continue to “run hot” with recent projections from the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Nowcast at 5.4%. The estimate assumes continued acceleration for consumer consumption and elevated positive net exports, as the US trade deficit closes.
Consumer Sentiment: According to University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers, overall consumer sentiment rose 3.5 points in January. This improvement was broad across all index components and could signal a strong underlying economy. Despite the broad increase, consumer sentiment remains 15 points below last January’s report. Additionally, consumer expectations for future inflation have decreased from recent peaks but remain elevated from 2024 readings.
The Week Ahead:
- Earnings: Notable earnings from four Mag 7 companies: TSLA, AAPL, MSFT & META
- Consumer Confidence Index (1/27)
- FOMC (1/28): Currently no rate cut is expected, as well as no update on economic projections from this meeting.
- Producer’s Price Index (1/30)
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