Author: Zac Martin, Investment Associate
Week Ending May 30th – Taco Tuesdays
GDP 2nd Preliminary reading for Q1 2025 was revised slightly higher (to -0.2%) than the previous report. Same idea here, imports outweighing consumption. Adjusting for imports, GDP consumption grew ~1.5%.
FOMC minutes for the May meeting highlighted the effect tariffs have had on the GDP calculation (inflated imports) but mentioned that Private Domestic Final Purchases reflected a stronger GDP report. Overall, the committee is expecting a slightly weaker economy but not a recessionary environment.
Consumer Confidence Index for May reported a 12.3-point increase, beating consensus estimates by 10 points. Write-in responses highlighted the still present concern around trade policy, but respondents remained hopeful for continued trade deals. The shares of consumers expecting a recession in the next twelve months declined and inflation expectations eased slightly.
The Week Ahead:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI & ISM Service PMI (6/4)
- JOLTS report (6/3)
- Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (6/6)
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