Markets in a Minute - Turkey Rally
By: Zac Martin
Week Ending November 21st & Week Ending November 28th – Turkey Rally
Returns for the Week Ending November 21st (below)
Returns for the Week Ending November 28th (below)
Fed Beige Book: Overall economic activity remains unchanged from the previous report however, the full economic picture remains bifurcated. Overall consumer spending has declined while high-end retail spending remained resilient. Additionally, community organizations saw an increase in demand for food assistance, primarily due to the government shutdown. Additionally, the employment situation declined slightly with half of the Fed Districts noting weak labor demand. While layoff announcements have increased, Districts reported that limiting headcount is being done through hiring freezes. Despite a weaker labor market, wages generally grew at a modest pace, additional labor costs were accrued due to an increase in health insurance premiums. Finally, prices rose moderately during November with input cost pressures largely reflecting tariff increases as well as increases for insurance, utilities, and technology. Despite the increase in input costs, passthrough to customers varied based on demand, competitive pressures, price sensitivity and customer pushback.
Q3 Gross Domestic Product: Investors did not receive the advanced Q3 GDP reading as economic bureaus continue to catch up from the most recent shutdown. Latest estimate from Atlanta fed is that GDP grew 3.9% with the consensus average being around 2.7%.
Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls for September were finally released following the government shutdown. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119k, which is slightly above the twelve-month average of 109k. However, this is down from September 2024’s report of 240k, Additionally, the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.4% from 4.3%, overall, this is higher from a year ago where the jobless rate was 4.1%.
The Week Ahead:
- ISM PMIs (12/2)
- ADP Employment (12/3)
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (12/5)
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