Markets in a Minute - 'Vibe Working'
By: Zac Martin
Author: Zac Martin, Investment Associate
Week Ending February 7th – ‘Vibe Working’
The Employment Situation: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, continued to suggest a weakened labor market. US Job Openings fell by 386k to 6.5Mil, which is a five-year low. However, Hires and Separations remain around 5.3Mil while Quits were also unchanged around 3.2Mil. With job openings decreasing and hire and separations remaining unchanged, this continues to imply a stagnate labor market, the opposite of what occurred during the great resignation in 2021 and 2022. Additionally, the economy added 50k nonfarm payroll jobs in December, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%. 2025 was a markedly tougher year for the job market, with the average monthly job increase at 49k, v. 168k in 2024.
Software Pressures: The selloff in software stocks continued last week as Anthropic, which owns Claude AI, launched Opus 4.6, which focuses on enterprise productivity. Relatedly, Software as a Service tries to achieve a similar goal, but at a higher price. The software industry index had fallen 15% since the end of January as fears of AI replacements picked up, those stocks recovered slightly on Friday. Despite this selloff in software stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to an all-time high, surpassing the 50,000 level.
The Week Ahead:
- NIFB Small Business Index (2/10)
- Retail Sales: Expected to decelerate, M/M: 0.4% (2/11)
- Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate for Jan: Nonfarm Payrolls: 80k jobs estimated | Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (2/11)
- Consumer Price Index: 2.5% Y/Y (2/13)
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