Author: Zac Martin, Investment Associate
Week Ending October 3rd – When September Ends
Both the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Services PMI contracted for September, continuing to highlight the downward pressure in business activity. Although both indicators remain above the 50 point threshold that signals expansion rather than contraction, the continued decline in new orders has been the largest drag on overall activity and may point to further economic softness ahead.
Given the recent government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release the Non-farm Payroll or Unemployment data. Therefore, looking at the ADP National Employment Report, the economy shed -32k jobs in September, the second consecutive decline in ADP surveyed payrolls. Also, this is the third negative report for this year with most of the decline coming from small sized employers (1-49 employees).
Job openings for August showed a slight increase to 7.227Mln from 7.208Mln in July, but underlying labor dynamics continued to cool. Both hires and quits rates declined, indicating less confidence among workers and employers alike. Additionally, layoffs slightly declined, however, it remains elevated compared to a year ago.
The Week Ahead:
- Several Federal Reserve Presidents are scheduled to speak at differing events. (Miran, Barr, Bowman & Powell)
- FOMC meeting minutes (10/8)
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