Author: Zac Martin, Investment Associate
Week Ending August 2nd – The Whole is Greater Than the Sahm of Its Parts
- FOMC leaves rates unchanged for this meeting, inline with analyst expectations. The statement highlighted more caution around the job market: “The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”
- Unemployment spikes to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm Rule; however, the number of long-term unemployed people remains relatively flat at 1.5 Mil. While individuals who have part time jobs increased by 346k.
- Non-Farm Payrolls report below analyst estimates to 114K jobs added, below the monthly average of 215K. The largest contributor to jobs growth was Healthcare followed by construction. May and June were both revised lower by a combined 29K.
- Earnings: Amazon reported mixed results with retail revenue and operating margin below midpoint expectations and AWS continuing to standout. Apple reported above estimates from a sales beat with iPhones. Management continued to show enthusiasm for upcoming Ai products, while the difference in analyst opinions around Ai driving an upgrade cycle continue to widen.
The week ahead:
- ISM Services PMI (8/5)
- Trade Balance (8/6)
- Wholesale Inventories, Final (8/8)
- Earnings: CSX, SPG (8/5), CAT, UBER, BLDR, YUM, AMGN (8/6), DIS, CVS, RL, MRO (8/7), LLY (8/8)
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