Author: David I. Templeton, CFA, Principal and Portfolio Manager

The fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 each saw the S&P 500 Index generate a double-digit return. Since 1945 this marks only the eighth time the S&P 500 Index has achieved back-to-back double digit quarterly gains. A table in our 2024 Spring Investor Letter shows the average one-year return following two strong quarters is 12.27%. As has been the case for the last year and a half, investors and the market have had a great deal of conflicting data to digest in an effort to gain insight into the future direction of the market and the economy. One data point confounding some strategist is the Federal Reserve's thinking around interest rate cuts. As this year has progressed fewer Fed Funds interest rate cuts seem likely this year and this is not a surprise to us as we have noted in earlier commentary. In fact. might it be no cuts or just one?

More detail and our thoughts on the mixed data is found in our 2024 Spring Investor Letter.  

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