Author; David I. Templeton, Principal and Portfolio Manager

The end of the first quarter on March 31st seems like a distant past given the tariff and trade news during the first part of April. The S&P 500 Index peaked at 6,144 on February 19th and subsequently began to exhibit weakness as the first quarter came to a close. On April 8th the market reached a low of 4,982, having declined almost 19% from its high this year. The very next day, on April 9th, the S&P 500 Index closed up 9.52%. Since 1950 there have been 23 times the S&P 500 Index has closed up over 5%. According to Strategist Ryan Detrick, CMT of Carson Research Group, a year later the Index was up an average of 26.9% and higher in 21 out of the 23 years. The Index is now down just -7.5% this year. The market does not move higher in a straight line and the tariff news flow certainly creates added uncertainty.

More of our thoughts on navigating the current environment are contained in the Spring 2025 Investor Letter.

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